Over the last month or so, a friend has asked me for football advice and tips so that he can pass it off as his own knowledge to his workmates, despite himself admitting to knowing very little about the sport. Cue incredulous hilarity (probably) in his office, which turns into a respectful awe (maybe) on Monday morning when a lot of the predictions pay off and - in the case of his bet-obsessed colleague - pay out.
I'm happy to oblige, as I have a lot to say about football but nowhere to say it, aside from to whoever I'm with whenever I watch a match down the pub. I'm happy to throw my hands up and admit I was wrong when it happens, but I thought it'd be interesting to see how often I was right, so I dug out my last few emails to my friend and you can see the results yourself...
4 October: Sam 3 - 0 Football
Q:
- Do we think Arsenal will win thes weekend?
- Man City vs Sunderland; is it worth having Tevez in your FF
squad?
- Thoughts on having Torres in the squad?
A:
Memorise this, and prepare to
stun your colleagues…
On paper, Arsenal *should*
win this weekend against a newly promoted West Ham. However, their manager Sam
Allardyce sets his team up to keep a clean sheet first and foremost, and then
if they score, all the better. So although I do think Arsenal will win, it will
be a tight game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if West Ham got a draw out of it…
it’s not a dead-cert, at any rate. West Ham 1 - 3 Arsenal (win)
City have such strength in depth
that having any of their players in your fantasy football team is a risk.
However, Tevez was the only one of their four strikers not to feature in last
night’s Champions League match, meaning that he is in pole position to start on
Saturday lunchtime’s kick-off versus Sunderland. He’s also one of the leading
candidates to take free kicks and penalties regardless who else is on the
pitch, which gives him greater chances to score points, and finally, he and
fellow Argentian Sergio Aguero (Maradona’s son-in-law) are manager Roberto
Mancini’s favoured front pairing, so are least susceptible to rotation.
Conclusion: yes, especially with City’s run of easy fixtures approaching, it’s
worth having him in your FF team (he is indeed in mine). Man City 3-0 Sunderland, Tevez got an assist, then got an assist and a goal respectively in the following two games ( win)
Torres is a trickier option. On
paper, yes, he ought to be in everyone’s squad: he is the *only*
recognised striker in a Chelsea team that has a plethora of attacking midfield
options to assist him to score goals. It should be a no-brainer – however, out
of frustration after he didn’t score for weeks on end, I took him out of my
team for the first time this season before last weekend – where he promptly
scored and assisted against Arsenal. This weekend’s trip to Norwich aside,
Chelsea face some tough games including Spurs away and Man Utd at home. Once
the fixtures ease up a bit, it’s worth getting him in (again, I plan to bring
him back in a month or so). For the short term, however, there are better
options: van Persie (Man Utd) and Jelavic for Everton can’t stop scoring when
they play. Torres scored and won an assist against Norwich, but has failed to score or assist in the five league games since (win)
26 October: Sam 5 - 2 Football
Q:
- Newcastle vs West Brom do I keep Demba Ba in>
- Reading vs Fulham?
- Aston Villa vs Norwich?
- Do I put Sergio Guerro in my team because Man City are
playing Swansea City?
- Cardif City vs Burnley?
- Middlesboro vs Bolton? Bolton have a new manager
- Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
A:
*Obviously* that’s who he is! He
left Crystal Palace, so I’d back Leicester in that one – they’re backed by
money, the Man City of the Championship if you will, so should win on paper
regardless. – Crystal Palace won, 2-1 (lose)
Definitely keep Demba Ba in for Newcastle vs WBA– he’s on form
and has a good run of opponents. – Demba Ba scored
(win)
Sergio “Kun” Aguero is a
difficult one… he started the midweek match, and is susceptible for rotation.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say no, but I could end up with egg on my
face. I’m backing Tevez to start that game, and to prosper. – Tevez scored, Aguero didn’t. (win)
The rest are actually quite
tricky to call…
Reading vs Fulham – the latter
aren’t great away from home, but the former aren’t great anywhere… could easily
be a bore draw. If I had to choose a winner, I’d say Fulham to edge it though,
but think a draw is more likely. – draw, 3-3
(win)
Villa-Norwich – two teams who
are performing badly, despite Norwich’s surprise win against Arsenal last week.
Should be Villa’s game to win, but again it could easily be a draw. Verdict:
Villa (just). – draw, 1-1 (lose)
Cardiff City vs Burnley – I’d
back Cardiff here, Burnley are good but have recently lost their manager (who
went back to Bournemouth – woohoo!). – Cardiff
won 4-0 (win)
Finally, Middlesborough vs
Bolton. Tough to call, both former stalwarts of the Premier League who have
fallen on harder times and are now languishing in the second flight… at a push,
I’d say Middlesborough to win (but again, could easily be a draw). – Middlesborough won, 2-1 (win)
16 November: Sam 3 - 2 Football
A brief summary: Everton to beat Reading Reading won, 2-1 (lose), QPR to
pick up a first win of the season against Southampton, causing the latter's
manager to get the sack soon after Southampton won, 2-1 (lose), but the losing team's manager *did* get sacked (win), Gareth Bale to score against Arsenal (win) and
Suarez to continue to scoring spree against Wigan (win).
23 November: Sam 2 - 2 Football
Start by stating the obvious –
since QPR sacked Mark Hughes today, and they’ll be managerless tomorrow against
Man Utd, coupled with Utd’s shock loss to Norwich last weekend, due to which
they’ll have an extra incentive to attack, then it’s a no-brainer to back
United (in particular, Robin van Persie, especially now that Rooney’s back from
injury to help him out, so van Persie is an obvious fantasy football captain
candidate). Man Utd 3 - 1 QPR (win)
Elsewhere, it’s not so easy to
predict. Luis Suarez is a decent bet to carry on where he left off – he’s
scored five goals in his last four league games (indeed, eight in his last
seven), and Swansea’s attacking philosophy leaves them vulnerable to
counter-attacks, something which Liverpool can exploit. (lose)
Everton should get their first
clean sheet in seven league games against Norwich, despite the suspension of
afro-haired Fellaini. So Leighton Baines is their key man, also being on
penalties and free kicks, he’s got a chance to pick up some attacking points to
supplement the potential clean sheet. (lose)
As for the big match of the
weekend, Man City vs Chelsea, I personally don’t think it’s going to be
high-scoring. When a big match is also a local derby, you get teams wanting to
attack and be more aggressive, as there’s more at stake to lose than just
points (ie, pride, bragging rights). See Arsenal 5-2 Spurs, for example, or
Liverpool 2-2 Everton. But when it’s two big teams with half the country
separating them, then you see more of a cautious approach, almost paying too
much respect to the other team.
The added caveat here is that
Chelsea sacked their manager, Roberto Di Matteo, in the week, and replaced him
yesterday with Rafa Benitez, the former Liverpool manager. History dictates
that teams with a new manager are notoriously difficult to play against
immediately after a managerial change, with the players trying to impress their
new boss and fight for a place in the first team.
Neither team are in form, here,
so I’d hazard (you can make a pun here, as one of Chelsea’s players is called
Eden Hazard)a guess at a low-score draw, possibly 1-1. Low-, or no-score draw, at 0-0 (win)
7 December: Sam 2 - 1 Football
This approaching weekend marks the start of a
“double gameweek” for two teams -- Reading and Sunderland – because
their fixture was postponed earlier in the season. For fantasy football
territory, this highlights two opportunities to rack
up points compared to other teams’ one chance.
Now, the trouble here is that these two teams are
not performing very well. But, as Ellie Gouldings sings, “anything can
happen”, and so I have got one defender from each of Sunderland and
Reading into my team, because I think there’s a
higher chance of the teams keeping a clean sheet in at least one of
their games (dream scenario is keeping clean sheets in both).
My chosen punt would be Reading’s Nicky Shorey,
priced very cheaply at 4.1m, and on corners and free kicks which gives
him assist and even goal potential, on top of the aforementioned clean
sheet possibilities. 3 points over two games, no clean sheets (lose)
Sunderland’s Carlos Cuellar is not a bad option for
the Black Cats (I’ve got him), as he’s already scored this season so is
capable of finding the back of the net. 11 points over two games, including clean sheet, bonus point and assist in victory over Reading (win)
Michu vs Santi Cazorla? I’ve got to go with
Michu… he’s a classified midfielder who often plays as a lone striker,
he’s proved with his goals against Arsenal that he can score regardless
of tough fixtures, and he’s almost £2m cheaper
than Cazorla (who, despite being Arsenal’s best and most creative
player, all too often “assists the assist” and there’s no points for
that). Michu scored two goals against Norwich, Cazorla got one assist vs West Brom (win)
14 December: Sam 4 - 1 Football
Okay, from a fantasy
football perspective again, Chelsea don’t have a fixture because they’re
playing in the World Club Championship in Japan, which means their
prospective opponents Southampton also won’t be
playing in the Premier League this weekend. So it’s worth making sure
that you’ve got a team of at least 11 eligible players, and ideally at
least one or two players on your bench who are guaranteed starts by
their club as well – if you haven’t, then it would
be wise to use your transfer this week in this way.
In terms of Robert
Snodgrass, he’s a good player and has the capability to score goals, BUT
when thinking about transfers, you need to look further than the next
game – although Norwich play Wigan next and there’s
potential for goals in that one, they then play West Brom who are 6th, Chelsea who are 3rd and City who are 2nd…
followed by games away to West Ham, home to Newcastle, away to
Liverpool and home to Tottenham. For my money,
that’s a fixture list from hell, with little or no hope of returns, and
therefore Norwich (and Snodgrass) are best well avoided for the
foreseeable. Snodgrass didn't score or assist and returned only three points (win)
Elsewhere, there should be convincing victories from the likes of Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, even Arsenal… Man U won 3-1 (Win), Liverpool lost 3-1 (lose), City won 3-1 (win), Arsenal won 5-2 (win)
And finally, the most recent offering:
Okay, the first thing is a reminder that there are four games being
played in a ten-day period over Christmas, which means some players are
liable to rest and rotation. So again,
it's important to stress the need for a squad of fully fit players who
are established members of their team's starting line-up, and aren't
injured or suspended.
With that in mind, similar to last week's blank fixture for Chelsea and
Southampton, both Arsenal and West Ham will not be playing on Boxing Day
due to the tube strike - so anyone with a number of their players in
their squads will want to rectify this after
Saturday's matches vs Wigan and Everton, respectively.
Talking of Everton, their main player Marouane Fellaini has been
suspended for the next three matches - so ship him out immediately, if
you haven't done so already.
Because of the four games in ten days, the 'gameweeks' are substantially
shorter than usual, down to around three days or thereabouts. So
there's no point in taking a four-point hit for more than one transfer
in a gameweek over this period, as you can surely
wait a day or two to make your transfer.
I'll finish with a tip: Liverpool have got four decent fixtures coming
up, against Fulham, Stoke, QPR and Sunderland. They should get some
clean sheets out of that, and the manager's talked about giving Raheem
Sterling a rest soon - he plays just off the striker,
and the Liverpool defender Jose Enrique has been pushed up the field in
that position previously, and done well there. So, coupled with the
potential for clean sheets as he's classified as a defender, and
potential goal threat from a forward position, he looks
a good bet to get some big scored over the next four games...
